My Take...

29 January 2014

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2 February UPDATE: The Streak Continues ...

SO? Seattle won. Did you bet the house? Shoulda ... and the streak continues. Teams with the FEWEST SEC players come away as Super Bowl Winners. See you next year ...

Have you heard? There's a football game Sunday.

It has been sliced and diced any number of ways. Analyzed and OVER-analyzed ... But has a winner been projected by looking at the number of players per college conference on an NFL team?

Including practice squads and reserve lists, Seattle has a 63-man roster and Denver 64. There are 17 different conferences represented on Seattle's team and 14 for Denver.

We have heard - for what seems like forever - from fans in the southeastern part of the country.  The chant. S-E-C! ... S-E-C! ... S-E-C!  Yes, grudgingly we acknowledge that top to bottom the SEC has deserved the claim as the nation's best collegiate conference.

But as a Pac-12 fan I would say "Not by much." ... and ... "Not so fast".

We looked at each roster and summed up by conference using current 2014 alignments. Rutgers and Maryland counted in the Big 10 and Utah and Colorado in the Pac 12, for example. We also assigned Russell Wilson to his last school, Wisconsin, rather than his first school, NC State.

We only went back to 2011 to get an historical reference. Let's take a look.

2011

Green Bay Packers Pittsburgh Steelers
Conf Numbr % Conf Numbr %
SEC 13 17% SEC 13 18%
B1G 9 12% B1G 12 16%
PAC12 9 12% ACC 11 15%
MAC 8 10% Big12 7 9%
AAC 7 9% Pac12 6 8%
Mtn West 7 9% MAC 5 7%
ACC 6 8% CUSA 3 4%
BIG12 5 6% Indep 3 4%
CUSA 2 3% Sun Belt 3 4%
Indep 2 3% AAC 2 3%
OVC 2 3% Big Sky 2 3%
Big Sky 1 1% CIAA 2 3%
Great Lakes 1 1% unk 2 3%
MEAC 1 1% CAA 1 1%
Northern Sun 1 1% MEAC 1 1%
PSAC 1 1% Mtn West 1 1%
Southland 1 1% TOTAL 74
Sun Belt 1 1% Count 16
SWAC 1 1%
TOTAL 78
Count 19

For Green Bay: There were 6 conferences out of 19 that provided 68% of the talent. The "western" conferences [Pac12, BiG, Mtn West] was at 32%  and the AAC/SEC group provided 26%. The SEC was represented at 17%

For Pittsburg these numbers were: Top 5 - 66%; P12/B1g/BIG12 - 34%; SEC/ACC - 32%; SEC - 18%

So then the winner, Green Bay, had the higher Top 5%, lower SEC/AAC(ACC) %; lower SEC %; and higher conference count (19 vs. 16) and the MVP was Aaron Rodgers -- Pac 12.

  Packers  Steelers
Higher Top 5 % 68% 66%
Lower SEC % 17% 18%
Higher P12/B1G/MW % 32% 34%
Conference Count 19 16
Game MVP Aaron Rodgers(P12)

2012

New York Giants New England Patriots
Conf Numbr % Conf Numbr %
B1G 16 21% SEC 15 20%
ACC 14 19% B1G 12 16%
SEC 12 16% PAC12 10 14%
AAC 4 5% ACC 9 12%
PAC12 4 5% AAC 5 7%
MAC 3 4% BIG12 4 5%
Mtn West 3 4% Big Sky 2 3%
Sun Belt 3 4% MAC 2 3%
Big12 2 3% Mtn West 2 3%
CUSA 2 3% OVC 2 3%
IVY 2 3% unk 2 3%
MIAA 2 3% Atlantic10 1 1%
Atlantic 10 1 1% Big East 1 1%
Big West 1 1% CAA 1 1%
CAA 1 1% CUSA 1 1%
Independ 1 1% Great Lakes 1 1%
PSAC 1 1% Indep 1 1%
SIAC 1 1% MEAC 1 1%
SWAC 1 1% Rocky Mtn 1 1%
unk 1 1% Southland 1 1%
TOTAL 75 TOTAL 74
Count 20 Count 20

In 2012 we had an anomaly.  Manning's desperation heave at the end of the game; else the winner would have been different. So this would be an "outlier" (smile). Nonetheless ... continuing the analysis - and ignoring the desperation pass - we see the closeness of the stats; hence the evenness of the contest:

  Giants  Patriots
Higher Top 5 % 67% 69%
Lower SEC % 21% 20%
Higher Pac12/B1G % 27% 30%
Conference Count 20 20
Game MVP Eli Manning (SEC)

2013

Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers
Conf Numbr % Conf Numbr %
ACC 14 19% B1G 14 21%
SEC 11 15% SEC 12 18%
B1G 10 14% ACC 7 11%
PAC12 9 13% BIG12 6 9%
Big12 6 8% Pac12 6 9%
AAC 3 4% Mtn West 4 6%
CAA 3 4% MIAA 3 5%
SIAC 2 3% na 3 5%
Sun Belt 2 3% CUSA 2 3%
SWAC 2 3% Independ 2 3%
Amer East 1 1% AAC 1 2%
Atlantic10 1 1% Big Sky 1 2%
Big West 1 1% MAC 1 2%
Indep 1 1% OVC 1 2%
IVY 1 1% SIAC 1 2%
MEAC 1 1% SSAC 1 2%
MIAA 1 1% Sun Belt 1 2%
MTN West 1 1% TOTAL 66
OVC 1 1% Count 17
Southland 1 1%
TOTAL 72
Count 20

For Super Bowl XLVII we begin to see a trend. The winner, Baltimore, had the better of the important statistics. Most especially, lower SEC %.

  Ravens  49ers
Higher Top 5 % 69% 68%
Lower SEC % 15% 18%
Higher P12/B1G/B12 % 35% 39%
Conference Count 20 17
Game MVP Joe Flaco (CAA)

2014

Seattle Seahawks   Denver Broncos
Conf Numbr % Conf Numbr %
SEC 15 24% SEC 17 27%
PAC 12 13 21% AAC 12 19%
B1G 8 13% MTN WEST 8 13%
AAC 6 10% PAC12 7 11%
MTN WEST 4 6% B1G 6 9%
BIG 12 3 5% BIG 12 5 8%
BIG SKY 3 5% BIG SKY 2 3%
CUSA 2 3% ATLANTIC10 1 2%
CANADA 1 2% CAA 1 2%
GAC 1 2% CUSA 1 2%
GREAT LAKES 1 2% IND/ACC 1 2%
IND/ACC 1 2% MAC 1 2%
IVY 1 2% OVC 1 2%
MIAA 1 2% SUN BELT 1 2%
PATRIOT 1 2% TOTAL 64
SIAC 1 2% Count 14
SWAC 1 2%
TOTAL 63
Count 17
 

So, since 2011 we have seen a noticeable trend. The team with the lower SEC % wins the Super Bowl. The bonus here, of course, is that Seattle is the only team with any players from Oregon on the roster (see below). That seals the deal....

So there you have it. A totally unscientific and completely biased analysis of who the winner will be on Sunday. You have my permission to bet the house ....

...On SEATTLE.

  Seattle  Denver
Higher Top 5 % 73% 78%
Lower SEC % 24% 27%
Higher P12/B1G/B12 % 40% 33%
Conference Count 17 14
Game MVP? Russell Wilson

So? Who YOU got?

Below are all current Oregon players in the NFL:

PLAYERTEAM POSITION
Kiko Alonso Buffalo Bills Linebacker
Mark Asper Buffalo Bills Offensive Lineman
Kenjon Barner Carolina Panthers Running Back
LeGarrette Blount New England Patriots Running Back
John Boyett Denver Broncos Practice Squad
Jairus Byrd Buffalo Bills Safety
Patrick Chung Philadelphia Eagles Safety
Kellen Clemens St. Louis Rams Quarterback
Drew Davis Atlanta Falcons Wide Receiver
Ed Dickson Baltimore Ravens Tight End
LaMichael James San Francisco 49ers Running Back
Dion Jordan Miami Dolphins Defensive End
Kyle Long Chicago Bears Guard
Jeff Maehl Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver
Casey Matthews Philadelphia Eagles Linebacker
Haloti Ngata Baltimore Ravens Defensive Tackle
David Paulson Pittsburgh Steelers Tight End
Spencer Paysinger New York Giants Linebacker
Eddie Pleasant Houston Texans Safety
Dante Rosario Chicago Bears Tight End
Geoff Schwartz Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Lineman
Adam Snyder San Francisco 49ers Guard
Jonathan Stewart Carolina Panthers Running Back
Walter Thurmond Seattle Seahawks Cornerback
Will Tukuafu San Francisco 49ers Fullback
Max Unger Seattle Seahawks Center
T.J. Ward Cleveland Browns Defensive Back
Darrion Weems Dallas Cowboys Offensive Tackle
Brandon Williams Carolina Panthers Tight End

 

 

 

Go Ducks


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